Beverly-Hanks & Associates REALTORS® Asheville Real Estate | Hendersonville Real Estate | Waynesville Real Estate | Lake Lure Real Estate | Brevard Real Estate

Mortgage markets worsened for the 8th straight day, equaling the longest losing streak of the last 5 years.

Conventional, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are now scratching 5 percent, with FHA mortgage rates running roughly the same.

This is a huge increase from just 11 weeks ago when mortgage rates were riding an 8-month-long hot streak, and appeared headed into the 3s. Then the Federal Reserve intervened.

On November 3, as additional support for markets, the Fed announced its second round of bond buys, a $600 billion program dubbed QEII — short for Quantitative Easing, Round II. Wall Street got spooked on the news; investors feared runaway inflation.

That’s when low rates ended. Here’s why:

(A) Inflation makes the U.S. dollar lose its value,

And, (B) U.S. mortgage bond payments are paid in U.S. dollars.

Therefore, (C) Inflation makes mortgage bond repayments lose their value.

When mortgage bond repayments are worth less, bond demand falls among the global investor set and that causes bond prices to fall along with it. When bond prices fall, mortgage rates rise and that’s exactly what we’re seeing right now.

Since the Fed’s QEII announcement, mortgage rates have soared and home affordability is taking a hit.

Given recent trends, it’s probably safe to declare the Refi Boom “officially over” and the era of low mortgage rates may be over, too.  Home prices may move up or down this year, but rising mortgage rates could render the point moot. If you’re looking for a great “deal” with low, long-term payments, the time to get in contract may be now.

Because of rising rates, homeowners have lost roughly 10% of their purchasing power since November. To be sure your clients are working with the most up to date information, please have them check in with their loan officer to be certain they understand their current situation.

CLICK HERE for contact information for the Beverly-Hanks Mortgage Services loan officers.

Favorable news from the Fed, weaker than expected economic data, and strong demand for a record $112 billion in Treasury auctions helped mortgage markets this week. While the daily price movements were often large, mortgage rates ended the week just a little lower.

As expected, the Fed made no change in the fed funds rate on Wednesday. Although there was much disagreement about what the statement would say, in general it contained the minimum number of surprises. The Fed offered its most optimistic view on the economy since the recession began, yet officials believe that slack in the economy will keep inflation low. Fed officials continue to expect the fed funds rate to remain at exceptionally low levels “for an extended period.”

Of particular significance for the mortgage industry, the end date for the $1.25 trillion mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program was moved from the end of this year to the end of the first quarter of next year. The total quantity of purchases will not change, and the Fed will gradually scale back the level of weekly purchases to minimize disruptions to mortgage markets. Investors had been concerned that the Fed statement might contain less favorable news, and mortgage rates improved after its release. Longer-term, the decrease in demand from the Fed is expected to move mortgage rates higher, and it might lead to greater daily volatility.

This week’s housing data was mixed. After four months of increases, August Existing Home Sales fell 3%. Inventories of unsold homes fell to an 8.5-month supply from a 9.3-month supply in July. First-time homebuyers accounted for 30% of total sales. August New Home Sales rose slightly, and inventories dropped moderately.

Next week, the important Employment report will come out on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Early estimates are for a loss of about 190K jobs in September. Before the Employment data, the Chicago PMI and the ISM national manufacturing indexes will come out on Wednesday and Thursday. Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market, also will be released on Thursday. Personal Income, Final GDP, Construction Spending, Consumer Confidence and Factory Orders will round out the busy schedule. Also notable, the Treasury will announce the size of upcoming Treasury auctions on Thursday.

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