Human Judgment Essential For Predicting Overheating

statistics_forecasting_blogWith the housing market correction of 2008-2011 still fresh in everyone’s mind and with some neighborhoods yet to completely recover, it’s no wonder that many consumers are culling through the troves of housing market statistics for clues about the future.

Today’s markets are rapidly changing as individual neighborhoods and communities pendulum from a buyer’s to a seller’s market. Low inventory, tight lending standards, and the looming wave of Millennial buyers are brewing the next batch of uncertainty. Last month, Freddie Mac‘s Insight & Outlook Report for August 2015 reported that a substantial amount of expertise is required in addition to market statistics to determine if a housing market is overvalued, or when home prices are likely to drop.

643px-Freddie_Mac.svg“Statistics by themselves cannot tell us whether housing in a particular market—or the nation as a whole—is overvalued,” Freddie Mac chief economist Sean Becketti said. “At best, affordability statistics wake us up to potential danger. In this way, they are like the signs posted every summer in national parks that indicate the current danger of a forest fire. We recognize when the danger is elevated, but we can’t predict for sure if or when someone will accidentally drop a match in the wrong spot.”

Providing guidance on future increases or decreases in housing prices is an important function provided by professional real estate agents. Their guidance is essential for helping consumers make informed real estate decisions. Since hyperlocal changes in home values are often lumped into county and regional data, an agent’s first-hand experience is needed to determine the health of specific neighborhoods.

Beverly-Hanks equips consumers and our Associates with detailed neighborhood market information. Our Market Research Center is an essential tool for both home buyers and sellers. The tools contained in the Market Research Center coupled with the experience of a real estate agent who has specific expertise in a community’s real estate can provide invaluable insight for consumers looking to make confident real estate buying and selling decisions in today’s rapidly changing markets.


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